TSM Stock Price Prediction 2030: TSMC Bear, Base, Bull Cases

TSMC 12-Month Analyst Price Targets

TSMC Stock Price Prediction 2030: Three Scenarios

Each scenario grows TSMC's forward EPS ($23.39 today) at a fixed annual rate for 3 years, then applies an exit multiple. Change one assumption and the price changes with it, which is the point: the table shows what you would have to believe, not what will happen.

• •Bear case (-3% a year, 12x): AI customers pause to absorb the capacity they bought, price-sensitive markets stay weak, and overseas fab dilution widens to the 3 to 4 points TSMC has flagged. Earnings drift down from the 2027 consensus and a cross-strait scare pushes the multiple down to a deep cyclical level.
• •Base case (12% a year, 18x): Growth cools after 2027 as the AI build-out matures, N2 and A14 keep TSMC the main leading-edge supplier, and margins hold near current levels despite overseas costs. The multiple stays close to where the ADR trades today.
• •Bull case (18% a year, 22x): AI accelerator demand beats TSMC's mid-to-high 50s percent growth outlook for 2024 to 2029, A14 becomes a bigger node than N2 as TSMC expects, and pricing offsets overseas costs. Investors pay more as Arizona and Japan capacity reduces the Taiwan concentration.

How These Numbers Are Built

• • Start from the consensus forward EPS, which is analysts' estimate for the next fiscal year.
• • Compound it at each scenario's growth rate from that year to 2030.
• • Multiply 2030 EPS by the scenario's exit P/E to get a share price.
• • The model holds the share count flat, so dilution, buybacks, and acquisitions are not included. It uses forward EPS, not cash flow, debt, or a discounted valuation.
• • Prices, targets, and estimates refresh from Yahoo Finance about once an hour. The written analysis and assumptions are reviewed on the date shown at the top.

TSM Stock Price Prediction 2026 and 2027

For the next twelve months, the best public reference is the third-party analyst consensus in the table above: an average target of $584.39 per ADR against a price of $431.89, from 20 analysts as of October 21, 2026. Most of those targets run to roughly late 2027.

For the fourth quarter of 2026, TSMC guided revenue to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, about 58% higher than a year earlier at the midpoint, with gross margin of 65% to 67%. It reiterated a 2026 capital budget of $60 billion to $64 billion, and said it is being prudent in planning for 2027 because rising component prices are squeezing consumer and price-sensitive markets.

TSM Stock Price Prediction 2030 in ADR Terms

TSM is an American depositary receipt. Each ADR represents five TSMC common shares listed in Taiwan, so per-ADR figures are five times the per-share figures after converting New Taiwan dollars to US dollars. TSMC's third-quarter 2026 EPS of NT$29.43 per share equaled US$4.60 per ADR unit.

TSMC reports revenue in New Taiwan dollars, while the ADR trades in US dollars. That is why this page's model starts from consensus forward EPS per ADR in US dollars rather than from revenue. A stronger or weaker Taiwan dollar moves US-dollar earnings even when the business is unchanged.

TSMC Stock Forecast: Results and Node Roadmap

In the quarter to September 30, 2026, revenue was NT$1,494.24 billion, up 50.9% from a year earlier, or US$46.72 billion, up 41.2%. Net income rose 68.7% to NT$763.06 billion. Gross margin was 66.4% and operating margin was 58.7%.

N2, TSMC's 2-nanometer node, entered high-volume manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2025 at its Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sites. It was 8% of wafer revenue in the third quarter of 2026, with 3-nanometer at 33% and 5-nanometer at 28%, and TSMC expects N2-family capacity to more than double in 2027.

A16, which adds backside power delivery for AI and HPC chips, had been advertised for production in late 2026; trade press reported in April 2026 that TSMC's updated roadmap shows it in 2027. TSMC says A14 risk production is on track for 2027 with volume production in 2028, and its April 2026 symposium added A13 and A12, both scheduled for 2029.

Arizona, Japan, and Germany Fabs

TSMC's first Arizona fab entered high-volume production at the end of 2024. Construction of the second fab is complete and tools are being installed, with volume production planned for the third quarter of 2027, slightly ahead of the prior schedule. Construction of a third fab began in 2025, and in October 2026 TSMC said it was also evaluating Texas for more US capacity.

In Japan, the first fab of TSMC's Kumamoto joint venture, JASM, began volume production in December 2024. Construction of a second fab started in October 2025, and TSMC now plans 3-nanometer volume production there in 2028. TSMC is also building a fab in Dresden, Germany, through its ESMC joint venture.

These fabs cost more to run than TSMC's Taiwan sites. TSMC expects overseas fabs to reduce gross margin by close to 2 percentage points in 2026, widening to 3 to 4 points in the next few years as more US capacity ramps.

The Bull Case

• • Scale: TSMC said in October 2026 that it has nearly 20 fabs in progress worldwide, including 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fabs in Taiwan.
• • AI demand: TSMC had guided AI accelerator revenue to grow at a mid-to-high 50s percent annual rate from 2024 to 2029, and CEO C.C. Wei said in October 2026 that growth will probably be higher.
• • Next nodes: C.C. Wei said A14 is drawing more customer activity than 2-nanometer has so far, and TSMC expects A14 to be a bigger node than N2.
• • Margins: gross margin was 66.4% in the third quarter of 2026 even while TSMC absorbed the cost of ramping N2.

The Bear Case: Taiwan and Other Risks

• • Geopolitics: TSMC's 2025 annual report on Form 20-F warns that military conflict or hostilities could hurt its business and the price of its ADRs, and says markets have treated past developments in relations between Taiwan and mainland China as occasions to depress Taiwanese share prices.
• • Concentration: TSMC's ten largest customers made up about 78% of 2025 net revenue, and the two largest made up 19% and 17%.
• • Tariffs: a December 2025 US proclamation set a 25% tariff on certain imported advanced computing chips, and a January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement capped reciprocal tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15%. TSMC's 20-F says the details of preferential treatment and offsets are still unclear.
• • Cost: overseas fabs, tool price inflation that TSMC calls real, and a 2026 capital budget of $60 billion to $64 billion raise the bar for returns if demand slows.
• • Cyclicality: chip foundries have historically seen orders fall after build-outs, and TSMC already flags weakness in consumer and price-sensitive markets.