Palantir (PLTR) Stock Price Prediction 2026–2030
PLTR stock price prediction 2026 to 2030: live Palantir analyst targets, plus bear, base, and bull scenarios built from consensus EPS, with each input shown.
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As of October 21, 2026, Palantir (PLTR) trades at $201.72. The 26 analysts in Yahoo Finance's consensus have an average 12-month price target of $206.43, with a range of $80.00 to $265.00. Ecomerate's scenario model puts 2030 at $78.21 in the bear case, $183.63 in the base case, and $386.99 in the bull case. The spread is wide because the share price already assumes years of very fast growth, so small changes in that growth move the value a lot. Revenue grew 93% to $1.935 billion in the quarter to June 30, 2026, led by US commercial sales, and the range depends on how long that pace lasts.
Key Takeaways
- • Growth: Revenue rose 93% from a year earlier to $1.935 billion in the second quarter of 2026, and US commercial revenue rose 149% to $764 million.
- • Government: US government revenue grew 90% to $809 million in the quarter, still slightly larger than US commercial revenue.
- • Profitability: Palantir reported a 62% adjusted operating margin and a Rule of 40 score of 155%, its own measure combining revenue growth and adjusted operating margin.
- • Near term: Palantir guided third-quarter revenue to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion and raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion.
Palantir 12-Month Analyst Price Targets
| Price | Change from today | |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $201.72 | — |
| Lowest target | $80.00 | -60.3% |
| Average target | $206.43 | +2.3% |
| Median target | $217.50 | +7.8% |
| Highest target | $265.00 | +31.4% |
| 52-week range | $106.37 to $212.94 | — |
Palantir Stock Price Prediction 2030: Three Scenarios
Each scenario grows Palantir's forward EPS ($2.35 today) at a fixed annual rate for 3 years, then applies an exit multiple. Change one assumption and the price changes with it, which is the point: the table shows what you would have to believe, not what will happen.
| Scenario | Growth per year | Exit P/E | 2030 EPS | 2030 price | Change from today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10% | 25x | $3.13 | $78.21 | -61.2% |
| Base | 25% | 40x | $4.59 | $183.63 | -9% |
| Bull | 40% | 60x | $6.45 | $386.99 | +91.8% |
- •Bear case (10% a year, 25x): US commercial growth slows sharply as enterprise AI budgets mature and cloud providers and AI labs sell competing platforms, while defense budgets flatten. Earnings grow about 10% a year and the stock trades like a mature software company.
- •Base case (25% a year, 40x): Growth slows from today's pace but stays well above the software average as AIP spreads across more commercial customers and government work keeps growing. Margins hold near current levels and the multiple falls toward that of other fast-growing software leaders.
- •Bull case (40% a year, 60x): AIP becomes a standard enterprise platform, international commercial revenue picks up, and government agencies keep consolidating spending on Palantir. Earnings compound near today's pace and investors keep paying a premium multiple.
How These Numbers Are Built
- • Start from the consensus forward EPS, which is analysts' estimate for the next fiscal year.
- • Compound it at each scenario's growth rate from that year to 2030.
- • Multiply 2030 EPS by the scenario's exit P/E to get a share price.
- • The model holds the share count flat, so dilution, buybacks, and acquisitions are not included. It uses forward EPS, not cash flow, debt, or a discounted valuation.
- • Prices, targets, and estimates refresh from Yahoo Finance about once an hour. The written analysis and assumptions are reviewed on the date shown at the top.
PLTR Stock Price Prediction 2026 and 2027
For the next twelve months, the best public reference is the analyst consensus in the table above: an average target of $206.43 against a price of $201.72, from 26 analysts as of October 21, 2026. The gap between the lowest target, $80.00, and the highest, $265.00, shows how far apart analysts are on valuation.
The next marker is Palantir's third-quarter 2026 report, which third-party calendars expect around November 2, 2026; check Palantir's investor relations site for the confirmed date. Against guidance of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion in revenue, the market will watch US commercial growth, remaining deal value, and whether the full-year outlook rises again.
What Drives Palantir's Stock
Palantir sells software that lets governments and companies combine their data and run AI models on it, through its Gotham, Foundry, and AIP platforms. In the quarter to June 30, 2026, the US produced $1.573 billion of its $1.935 billion revenue, split between government ($809 million) and commercial ($764 million).
Bookings show where demand is heading. Palantir closed $3.373 billion of total contract value in the quarter, up 49% from a year earlier, and US commercial remaining deal value reached $6.238 billion, up 124%.
Why Valuation Matters as Much as Growth
Palantir's earnings are growing quickly, but its share price is a high multiple of what analysts expect it to earn in 2027. At that level, strong results can still leave the stock flat if growth slows faster than expected, because the multiple tends to fall as growth does.
The scenario model reflects that. All three cases start from consensus 2027 EPS; the bear case lets growth slow to about 10% a year, and only the bull case keeps a premium multiple in 2030.
The Bull Case
- • US commercial momentum: US commercial revenue grew 149% in the second quarter of 2026, and Palantir raised its full-year US commercial outlook to more than $3.424 billion, growth of at least 134%.
- • Cash generation: adjusted free cash flow was $1.220 billion in the quarter, and Palantir expects positive GAAP operating income and net income in every quarter of 2026.
- • Government position: in July 2025 the US Army announced an enterprise agreement with Palantir with a ceiling of up to $10 billion over 10 years, consolidating 75 contract vehicles, DefenseScoop reported. The Army is not committed to spending the full amount.
- • Balance sheet: Palantir held $9.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term US Treasuries at June 30, 2026.
The Bear Case
- • Valuation: the share price assumes years of fast growth, so a slowdown could cut the multiple even if earnings keep rising.
- • Government dependence: US government agencies produced about 42% of second-quarter revenue, so budget delays or shifts in defense priorities would show quickly.
- • Competition: cloud providers, AI labs, and data-platform companies all sell tools for enterprise AI, and some buyers may build on those instead.
- • Geographic concentration: about 81% of second-quarter revenue came from the US, so growth depends heavily on one market.
Before You Rely on This
This article is information and research education, not personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures can be stale or incomplete, so check material claims against the dated primary source. Ecomerate is not a broker.
Sources
- Palantir second-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit, SEC)
- Palantir investor relations
- Army plans big shakeup in software buying, starting with $10B Palantir deal (DefenseScoop, July 31, 2025)
- PLTR analyst estimates (Yahoo Finance)
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PLTR stock price prediction for 2030?
No one can predict it reliably. Ecomerate's scenario model, which applies stated growth and P/E assumptions to consensus forward EPS, gives $78.21 in the bear case, $183.63 in the base case, and $386.99 in the bull case. Those are illustrations of what you would have to believe, not forecasts.
What is the Palantir stock price target for the next 12 months?
As of October 21, 2026, the 26 analysts in Yahoo Finance's consensus have an average 12-month target of $206.43, with a low of $80.00 and a high of $265.00. The stock was at $201.72.
What is Palantir's Rule of 40 score?
Palantir reported a Rule of 40 score of 155% for the second quarter of 2026, the sum of 93% revenue growth and a 62% adjusted operating margin. The measure is Palantir's own and uses a non-GAAP margin, so other companies may calculate it differently.
What could make Palantir stock fall?
The main risks are slower US commercial growth, changes in US government spending, competition in enterprise AI, and a lower valuation multiple. Because the stock trades at a high multiple of expected earnings, a slowdown could matter more than the earnings themselves.
When does Palantir report earnings next?
Third-party calendars expect the third-quarter 2026 report around November 2, 2026. Check Palantir's investor relations site for the confirmed date.
Is Palantir stock a buy?
Ecomerate does not make buy or sell recommendations. This page shows third-party analyst targets, a scenario model with its assumptions, and the risks on both sides so you can do your own research.